Morgan Stanley predicts economic collapse worse than depression
Friday, March 6, 2009 15:51Morgan Stanley’s UK equity strategist Graham Secker painted a bleak economic picture for the United Kingdom. In his morning forecast, Mr. Secker warned that UK profits could fall by 60% in the current downturn – a worse performance than the great depression of the 1930s.
“We now forecast UK profits [will] fall by 60% across 2008 and 2009. While this sounds a rather draconian and hyperbolic downgrade, we believe it is realistic and incorporates the big losses that have come to light in the banking sector as well as a sharp drop in commodity prices (oil was $100 last September).
“Our forecasts assume that the banks sector makes around a £20bn loss in 2008 and 2009 and that the insurance sector makes no profit in 2008. The profile is much less severe if we strip out the banks – for example, our model suggests profits for the market ex-financials will fall 24% in 2009 post 15% growth in 2008.
“At this point we are also officially introducing a top-down 2010 earnings per share and dividends per share growth forecast of 0%. While this could be perceived as “fence-sitting”, we think it accurately reflects both our uncertainties about the future and an underlying bias not to want to invest in assets based on the expectation of any economic or profit growth next year.
“If our expectation of a 60% peak-to-trough decline in UK profits is correct, this would mark an even worse outcome than that seen in the early 1930s when our data suggests profits fell by around 57%. However we do not consider this forecast unreasonable – prior to this downturn, we saw the biggest 5-year increase in corporate profits in the history of our data and hence it is not unreasonable to also expect the biggest bust.
“As bad as a 60% fall in profits is, it would have been even worse were it not for a big foreign exchange benefit. In the last six months US dollar/pound has fallen from 1.8 to 1.45 and, given the prevalence of US dollar reporters in the UK, this has boosted UK market earnings by around £10bn. On a ‘constant currency basis’ 2009 earnings would be nearly 10% lower than we currently forecast and hence our peak-to-trough drop would be approaching 70%. The most obvious example of this can be found in the energy sector where profits are set to fall 70% in US dollar terms on our analysts’ forecast (oil price averages $35 this year), yet by just 50% in sterling terms.
“The sustained weakness in equity markets in recent months suggests that traditional equity valuations are rather irrelevant at the current time. In the second half of last year, this was partly due to the over-riding dominance of investor de-leveraging, in our view. In more recent times, however, we suspect that the irrelevance of valuations owes more to a complete lack of investor confidence in the correct level of earnings, dividends and even book value.”
You certainly can not accuse Mr. Secker of being early as UK stocks have already dropped 65% from their peak.
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[...] Morgan Stanley predicts economic collapse worse than depression Morgan Stanley’s UK equity strategist Graham Secker painted a bleak economic picture for the United Kingdom. In his morning forecast, Mr. Secker warned that UK profits could fall by 60% in the current downturn – a worse performance than the great depression of the 1930s. [...]
Gidilberto Brambilla says:
April 11th, 2009 at 1:38 pm
I Pm di Roma chiesero a Stefano Ricucci quale Hedge fund facesse l’insider tradings sulla Bnl: furbastro Leo fund di Stefano Roma come su Elsag Bailey, Drs Finmeccanica, Unipol bonds, Pirelli Cornig e in moltissimi altri simili casi ( magnamagnone Stefano Roma del Leo fund un massone scaltrissimo con forte passione per riciclare danari pericolosissimi, effettuare insidere, trading ahead, e anche mandare in giro spioni alla Tavaroli/Cipriani a pro similsatanisti…). Un ex collaboratore di qs “insider tradingaro” magnamagnafregafreaga sciacqua capitali anche insanguinati, Stefano Roma del Leo Fund, e´un genovese noto nella City per gia’ tre volte aver cercato di riciclare danari di Camorra, Ndrangheta e Cosa Nostra, tale criminalissimo, finto filoGesuita, Tomaso Spingardi, “scalciato” via, visti i suoi intrallazzi con assassini siculi, napoletani e calabresi, da qualsiasi istituzione finanziaria ( mega riciclatore di danari criminalissimi, Tomaso Spingardi di Genova, spia viscidissima e faccendiere: venne cacciato via addirittura anche dalle piu´immorali e filocriminali, nonche´ massonicodeliquenziali banche d´affari al mondo, ossia Morgan Stanley e Lehman bts; e poi fu cacciato pure dal super insider tradingaro simil monnezzaio finanaziario sopra citato, ossia il lavandaio borsistico del insiderone, ormai quasi bancarottiere, Stefano Roma del Leo fund stesso; Tomaso Spingardi neonazista, filomafiossimo, massone della Gran Loggia Italiana Massonica del fascistissimo Giuseppe Sabato, ossia la nuova P2, non per niente basata ad Arezzo pure essa, con iscritti tutti i Gelli, figli, nipoti, cugini di cugini e anche eventuali cani, gatti e coccodrilli di appartenenza varia..; Kapo dello sciacquone di danaro colante sangue di morti ammazzati da tutte le parti, Tomaso Spingardi e´, quindi, il Gran Maestro Massonazifascista Giuseppe Sabato delle filomafiosissime, quindi, Berlusconianissime: Duemme srl, Banca Esperia e Gran Loggia Italiana Massonica in questione; massonazista pappone Giuseppe Sabato, neopiduista napoletano, vicinissimo alla Camorra; porcuzzeddu sobillatore di detti delinquenti assassini “sulla munnezza”, prima per far cadere Romano Prodi, poi, per far accreditare il maf..ascista di Arcor..leone, Silvio Berlusconi stesso, allorche`ordino a detti assassini camorristi ” di riaggiustare tutt quand ei koss”; infatti, egli, di sera fa’ “o capomassone” e di giorno e’ dirigente in Duemme srl e Banca Esperia, baracconi finanziari sciacqua danaro criminale a palate di Silio Berlusconi, oo che caso; come da tradizione: Banca Rasini, Banca Arner, Banca Mafiolanum Nazistanum Mediolanum dei porci money laundrier Edoardo Lombardi, Ennio Doris, Paolo Sciume, Massimo Doris, suino mega riciclatore di danari assassini Giorgio Pirovano …..; e cosi´, i soldi superassassini dei Casalesi, via prestanomi di prestanomi, come il solito, i Berluscones li stra riciclano). Dirty mason/mafioso super money laundrier, mega corrupted pig Tomaso Spingardi, stinky ex masonazist in Morgan Stanley, stinky ex masonsatanist in Lehman bts, dal suo conto alle Bahamas salda poi gli ispiratori di qs insiders, tra cui, Giovanni Consorte ( su Unipol Bonds), schifoso topo di fogna suicidatore, anzi, assassin mandante, l´assassino della Borsa di Milano, Michele Milla ( su Pirelli Cornig), cocainomane Berlusconiano pedofilo complottardo schifosissimo Attilio Ventura ( su Drs Finmeccanica), massone malavitosissimo noto come “el suino corruptor del Grande Oriente d`Italia”, Vittorio Casale di Operae ( su “sporche immobiliari varie”), piduista di centrosinistra ( ? c.sinistra?) Nicola La Torre ( per tenere buoni gli incappucciatoni Pd), bas.ardo nazistissimo viscido cesso antidemocraticissimo terrorista di estremissima destra Gaetano Pecorella ( per fare lo stesso coi modernazisti Berlusxuxluxklones) . Fate qualche check su tutto cio´ e vedrete…..
Scusate ma mi dovevo sfogare, ho fondato la Lega, con quel porco ingroppatore di mig.otte a valanga Roberto Maroni e Umberto Bossi; quando vi era da scrivere di notte vota Lega sui ponti, chiamavano me, il pirla, mettevo la benza io, mi arrampicavo io, facevo tutto io, poi, perche´ non sopporto Silvio Berlusconi il mafioso bastrado assassino lurido, calcio nel sedere e via.
Morto si, ma a stomaco leggero e voce squillante, per il momento, qui sul web, ma forse, poi……
Gidilberto Brambilla fiero lecchese che al figlio di pu.tana Silvio Berlusconi dice no.
How to Get Six Pack Fast says:
April 15th, 2009 at 10:24 am
I noticed that this is not the first time at all that you mention the topic. Why have you decided to touch it again?
mario says:
April 25th, 2009 at 8:30 am
caro finto giliberto brambilla non so se sei matto e un delinquente? certo che di spazzatura falsa ne spari proprio tanta!! nulla di meglio da fare invidiosone?
Gidilberto Brambilla ex trader in London detto El Brambiluuuuun says:
May 2nd, 2009 at 2:51 pm
No schifoso massone assassino corrotto porco Tomaso Spingardi, vile ratto schifoso qui nickantesi Mario ( ovvio, sei un mariuolo come Mario Chiesa e quindi ti viene spontaneissimo “Mariarti”). Io son Gidilberto Brambilla per davvero, ex trader di Kleinwort Benson Londra, e il tuo ex collega, corrottisimo come te, Michael Chinnick gia´ Morgan Stanley, mi ha raccontato di quanto sei un suino puzzone, Tomaso Spingardi. Di quando ti fingevi amico per carpire infos a chi, voi massoni luridi di estrema destra di Morgan Stanley stessa e Lehman, volevate carpirle, per poi fare, queste persone stesse, ammazzare da massoni, mafiosi e naziCiaroli varii. Hai parecchi morti sulla coscienza, tu, verme puzzone Tomaso Spingardi, e io lo faro´ sapere al mondo intero. Fai poco il galletto con me, molto poco. Per te e i tuoi porci complici, sara´ da ora in poi VERGOGNA TIME. Wait and see, lurido riciclatore di danari mafiosi Tomaso Spingardi
NewAmericaNow says:
May 17th, 2009 at 9:20 pm
Read the Article…http://newamerica-now.blogspot.com/2009/05/economic-collapse-and-family-survival.html
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Frank Di Cerbo New York says:
January 21st, 2010 at 6:41 am
Uno dei piu’ prezzolati e schifosi, nonche’ luridi complici di Banca Mafiolanum Camorranum Riciclanum Mediolanum e’ lo sciacquone di cash della Ndrangheta milanese, Paolo Barrai di Mercato Libero, uno cacciato a calci in faccia da Citibank, in quanto nella stessa creava conti fittizi a favore dei criminalissimi Ennio Doris e Giorgio Pirovano di Banca Mediolanum, per far fare loro enormi dividend washing sul 1,99 per cento della Generali ( 1.99 pc, ovviamente, per, fraudolentemente, direi, anzi, malavitosissimamente, ridirei, evitare costosissime opa), nel 1999. Operazione, per la quale, gli stessi mafiosi in cravatta Ennio Doris e Giorgio Pirovano di Banca CosaNostranum, AlCaponanum, Mediolanum, sfiorarono la galera ( salvati da che? dla primo scudo maiale e fiscale di Tremonti, o che caso, ooooo). E’ ora di fare una rivoluzione calientissima in Italia, e’ ora di far finire malissimo tutti i Berluscones. Frank Di Cerbo ( parente di chi caccio’ a sberle in faccia, ladrone Paolo Barrai, da Citibank)