Charting Stocks

Last week, we mentioned that technical indicators began to turn negative. Technical damage continued today as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones Transportation Average, and  S&P 500 closed below their pivotal 50 and 200 day moving averages (first time since March), with all 3 averages registering an RSI sell signal.  NASDAQ bucks the trend [...]

Technical indicators are beginning to turn negative for the first time since the beginning of the March rally. The S&P 500 index  violated its 3-month uptrend while the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed below its 200-day-moving-average. Momentum indicators have turned bearish.
The Dow Jones (Chart below) is still holding on to its uptrend line though RSI [...]

What a wild ride these past few weeks have been. Only a month or so ago the Dow Jones Industrial Average traded down to 6,500 amid an onslaught of catastrophic economic news. The market has since rallied 25% from its low with insolvent banks such as Citigroup and Bank of America quadrupling in value. Jim [...]

The $838 billion bailout out bill dujour won approval in the Senate by a vote of 61-37. The market reacted  in the same way as the passage of previous bailout bills – It sold off.
Why does this happen? The media is mostly to blame. They are constantly peddling false optimism while setting their viewers sites [...]

2009 will be a year of complete destruction for the US economy. 5 Million will lose their jobs. The Dow Jones Industrial average will break below 6,000. Municipalities will fail. Insurers will fail. The unemployed and foreclosed American population will take to the streets and begin rioting. The Greatest Depression is upon us.
Sound far fetched? [...]

Today’s treasury auction outlined the panic that still dominates the financial markets. $36 Billion in T-Bills were auctioned off today which gave a 0% yield. Why would anyone be willing to make an investment in which they are guaranteed to make nothing? The one word answer is “Fear.”

Because treasury bills are direct obligations of the [...]

I noticed a couple of comments (OK just one) regarding inflation/deflation and how to know which is dominant. To get the answer I like to use a simple inflation/deflation indicator that I first learned about by reading John Murphy’s Intermarket Analysis book. I highly recommend reading this book to anyone who’s interested in charting stocks [...]

News Flash! Recession Started a Year Ago Says NBER

It must be exciting to be an economist at NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research) who just recently announced that the US has been in a recession for a year. I wish I could find a job which entails telling people what happened in the stock market [...]

The yield on the 10 year treasury sunk to a 50 year low this week. It’s important to pay attention to moves in the treasury yield. If investors are panicked, they are more concerned with safety and less concerned with returns. Because price and yield are inversely related, when demand increases and the price for [...]

As of 01/02/2008 the the year price target on the S&P 500 set by the Chief Investment Strategists at the major investment banks are as follows:
Strategist Year End Price Target
Citigroup                                   1675
HSBC                                          1700
Credit Suisse                              1650
Bank of America                         1625
UBS                                             1700
Morgan Stanley                           1525
Bear Stearns                                1700
Goldman Sachs                           1675
JP Morgan                                    1590
Lehman Brothers                         1630
Wachovia                                     1590
Merrill Lynch                                1525
Average 1632
Average [...]