Charting Stocks

Stock futures are down sharply this morning ahead of the open. The DJIA is down 170 points while the NASDAQ is off 21 points. The mainstream media sources are attributing todays selloff to a comment made from the Obama administration that suggests a GM bankruptcy is a possibility. Is that really the reason for the [...]

Seasonably speaking, December is one of the best months to own stocks. For the past 20 or so years the average monthly return in the month of December has exceeded 3%. Considering how quick and intense this collapse has been, one must anticipate a counter-trend upward correction. Bear markets are notorious for these but you [...]

I noticed a couple of comments (OK just one) regarding inflation/deflation and how to know which is dominant. To get the answer I like to use a simple inflation/deflation indicator that I first learned about by reading John Murphy’s Intermarket Analysis book. I highly recommend reading this book to anyone who’s interested in charting stocks [...]

The yield on the 10 year treasury sunk to a 50 year low this week. It’s important to pay attention to moves in the treasury yield. If investors are panicked, they are more concerned with safety and less concerned with returns. Because price and yield are inversely related, when demand increases and the price for [...]

Kondratieff
Nikolai Kondratieff was a Russian Professor who, after the Russian revolution of 1917, was tasked with developing the “Five year plan” which researched and analyzed factors regarding economic growth for the Soviet’s. Kondratieff published his work in 1926 and because his findings seemed critical of the stated policies of Joseph Stalin, Professor Kondratieff was removed [...]

As of 01/02/2008 the the year price target on the S&P 500 set by the Chief Investment Strategists at the major investment banks are as follows:
Strategist Year End Price Target
Citigroup                                   1675
HSBC                                          1700
Credit Suisse                              1650
Bank of America                         1625
UBS                                             1700
Morgan Stanley                           1525
Bear Stearns                                1700
Goldman Sachs                           1675
JP Morgan                                    1590
Lehman Brothers                         1630
Wachovia                                     1590
Merrill Lynch                                1525
Average 1632
Average [...]